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The Israeli Army, Predicting Performance, and Confidence vs. Data
Posted By Daniel Enthoven On 11/03/2011 @ 16:33 In General | Comments Disabled
You might think that the Psychology Branch of the Israeli Army would have developed some pretty good tests for evaluating officer material.
After all, these are trained psychologists, with tons of money and time. Who becomes an officer is a matter of life or death. How to select officers has likely been studied in the military since prehistory. And this is the Israeli Army.
But if you thought that expert psychologists would spot the best candidates, you’d be wrong.
It turns out that human biases, using the wrong criteria, and asking the wrong questions leads to results that were “were better than blind guesses, but not by much.” You can read the article here [1].
We see the same thing in recruiting all the time. People believe they’re good at interviewing and that they can determine who will shine and who will fail. They believe they have a scientific approach that will eliminate error and produce optimal results. And often, they’re wrong.
People have a natural bias towards confidence. They believe in themselves, and what they can see and understand. Sometimes they’re confident for absolutely no reason, or even confident despite all the evidence against them.
Data is incredibly powerful because it can cut through biases, hunches, and incorrect reasoning. Data driven processes can deliver results that opinion based processes simply cannot.
Evolv’s vision is to provide employers with confidence rooted in data. We want employers to know there is a meaningful correlation between the outcomes they want from their workforce, and the decision criteria they use when hiring.
We’re delivering on that vision with data driven workforce selection. And the great news is that we have the data to show that our approach is delivering tremendous value, with higher performing workforces and significantly lower attrition.
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[1] here: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/23/magazine/dont-blink-the-hazards-of-confidence.html
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